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"Do not walk to the truth, but dance. On each and every step of that dance your foot comes down in exactly the right spot. Each piece of evidence shifts your beliefs by exactly the right amount, neither more nor less. What is exactly the right amount? To calculate this you must study probability theory. Even if you cannot do the math, knowing that the math exists tells you that the dance step is precise and has no room in it for your whims." -- from "Twelve Virtues of Rationality", by Eliezer Yudkowsky
One of the more useful mental tools I've found is the language Lojban ( www.lojban.org/tiki/Learning ), which makes explicit many of the implicit assumptions in languages. (There's also a sub-language based on Lojban, called Cniglic ( www.datapacrat.com/cniglic/ ), which can be added to most existing languages to offer some additional functionality.)
One of the things Lojban (and Cniglic) has are 'evidentials', words which can be used to tag other words and sentences to explain how the speaker knows them: "ja'o", meaning "I conclude", "za'a" meaning "I observe", "pe'i" meaning "It's my opinion", and more. However, there hasn't been any easy and explicit way to use this system to express Bayesian reasoning...
... until today.
Lojban not only allows for, but encourages, "experimental" words of certain sorts; and using that system, I have now created the word "bei'e" (pronounced BAY-heh), which allows a speaker to tag a word or sentence with how confident they are, in the Bayesian sense, of its truth. Taking an idea from the foundational text by E.T. Jaynes, "bei'e" is measured in decibels of logarithmic probability. This sounds complicated, but in many cases, is actually much easier to use than simple odds or probability; adding 10 decibels multiplies the odds by a factor of 10.
The current reftext for "bei'e" is at www.lojban.org/tiki/bei%27e , which amounts to adding Lojbannic digits to the front of the word:
ni'uci'ibei'e -oo 0% 1o complete disbelief, paradox
ni'upabei'e -1 44.3% 4:5 10 times less likely than sobei'e
ni'ubei'e <0 <50% <1:1 less than even odds, less likely than so
nobei'e 0 50% 1:1 neither belief nor disbelief, agnosticism
ma'ubei'e >0 >50% >1:1 greater than even odds, more likely than not
pabei'e 1 55.7% 5:4 preponderance of the evidence
rebei'e 2 61.3% 3:2
cibei'e 3 66.6% 2:1 clear and convincing evidence
vobei'e 4 71.5% 5:2
mubei'e 5 76.0% 3:1 beyond a reasonable doubt
xabei'e 6 80.0% 4:1
zebei'e 7 83.3% 5:1
bibei'e 8 86.3% 6:1
sobei'e 9 88.8% 8:1
panobei'e 10 90.9% 10:1
pacibei'e 13 95.2% 20:1 10 times as likely as cibei'e
xarebei'e 62 99.99994% 1,500,000:1 5 standard deviations
ci'ibei'e oo 100% oo:1 complete belief, tautology
xobei'e ? ?% ? question, asking listener their level of belief
By having this explicit mental tool, even if I don't use it aloud, I'm finding it much easier to remember to gauge how confident I am in any given proposition. If anyone else finds use in this idea, so much the better; and if anyone can come up with an even better mental tool after seeing this one, that would be better still.
.uo .ua .uisai .oinairo'e
One of the more useful mental tools I've found is the language Lojban ( www.lojban.org/tiki/Learning ), which makes explicit many of the implicit assumptions in languages. (There's also a sub-language based on Lojban, called Cniglic ( www.datapacrat.com/cniglic/ ), which can be added to most existing languages to offer some additional functionality.)
One of the things Lojban (and Cniglic) has are 'evidentials', words which can be used to tag other words and sentences to explain how the speaker knows them: "ja'o", meaning "I conclude", "za'a" meaning "I observe", "pe'i" meaning "It's my opinion", and more. However, there hasn't been any easy and explicit way to use this system to express Bayesian reasoning...
... until today.
Lojban not only allows for, but encourages, "experimental" words of certain sorts; and using that system, I have now created the word "bei'e" (pronounced BAY-heh), which allows a speaker to tag a word or sentence with how confident they are, in the Bayesian sense, of its truth. Taking an idea from the foundational text by E.T. Jaynes, "bei'e" is measured in decibels of logarithmic probability. This sounds complicated, but in many cases, is actually much easier to use than simple odds or probability; adding 10 decibels multiplies the odds by a factor of 10.
The current reftext for "bei'e" is at www.lojban.org/tiki/bei%27e , which amounts to adding Lojbannic digits to the front of the word:
ni'uci'ibei'e -oo 0% 1o complete disbelief, paradox
ni'upabei'e -1 44.3% 4:5 10 times less likely than sobei'e
ni'ubei'e <0 <50% <1:1 less than even odds, less likely than so
nobei'e 0 50% 1:1 neither belief nor disbelief, agnosticism
ma'ubei'e >0 >50% >1:1 greater than even odds, more likely than not
pabei'e 1 55.7% 5:4 preponderance of the evidence
rebei'e 2 61.3% 3:2
cibei'e 3 66.6% 2:1 clear and convincing evidence
vobei'e 4 71.5% 5:2
mubei'e 5 76.0% 3:1 beyond a reasonable doubt
xabei'e 6 80.0% 4:1
zebei'e 7 83.3% 5:1
bibei'e 8 86.3% 6:1
sobei'e 9 88.8% 8:1
panobei'e 10 90.9% 10:1
pacibei'e 13 95.2% 20:1 10 times as likely as cibei'e
xarebei'e 62 99.99994% 1,500,000:1 5 standard deviations
ci'ibei'e oo 100% oo:1 complete belief, tautology
xobei'e ? ?% ? question, asking listener their level of belief
By having this explicit mental tool, even if I don't use it aloud, I'm finding it much easier to remember to gauge how confident I am in any given proposition. If anyone else finds use in this idea, so much the better; and if anyone can come up with an even better mental tool after seeing this one, that would be better still.
.uo .ua .uisai .oinairo'e
Just avoided dying IRL by winning a dream-battle
It's possible that I just kept myself from dying (or at least experiencing significant pain) in real life by winning a magical conflict in my dreams. ... Yes, really. Not what I was expecting when I went to bed, either. Ate what was probably too much pizza yesterday. Been feeling a bit uninspired and washed-out, but tried a mirroring exercise with ChatGPT, and managed to get a bit of bright color back into my imagination. After hitting the hay, had a dream with a reasonably coherent narrative thread, of which I only remember a few shards of the initial intro; I was at a park's picnic table with some family, some mental trick (teleporting?) wasn't working so I put my head down and jacket up while I tried to think it through, wended through dream-versions of some of the streets towards one of the places I still sometimes dream is my home, because of what I'd heard on the way about an intruder and seeing the open door I stomped towards it in a rage that apparently produced an aura
DPR on Mastodon
Never really did much on Twitter, but now that the exodus from there has started, I've fired up an old Mastodon account and am giving decentralized, federated social media a try. Found a few furries I already know there; if you want to join in the fun, you can find me at: https://mastodon.xyz/@DataPacRat
Paxlovid: Get!
My first symptoms and positive test were on Saturday evening; on Sunday, my doc faxed a prescription for Paxlovid to my pharmacy, but didn't check all the necessary boxes and whoever was working at the drugstore was an intern or something without authority to do anything, Monday was Labor Day... but today, finally, I got me my 30 little pills, and have just taken my first dose of 3 of 'em. Take that, you mindless self-replicating collection of RNA! Die! Die! Dissolve into uncoordinated atoms, and never darken my metaphorical doorstep again! ... Look, I've been breaking into my emergency reserve of cheering-up video bookmarks (ranging from orchestral arrangements of Undertale music to The Three Stooges' Christmas Album), for those few hours-a-day I'm awake right now, and I'm going to unashamedly wallow in any ridiculous anthropomorphization that helps keep my spirits up.
Well, crap - caught it.
Just tested positive on a home antigen kit. Fortunately, I've had three shots... I was thinking of getting a fourth soon, but I suppose that'll have to wait a while. Also fortunately, after my weight-loss in recent years, I don't have any of the co-morbidities that qualify me for Paxlovid; unfortunately, I don't qualify for Paxlovid. I'm enough of a hermit that I know exactly who I caught it from - I tested myself after they tested positive. But one person I live with is over 70 and has, so far, tested negative; so there's going to be a bit of household shuffling while we all try to keep them clean. I've been taking Vitamin D and zinc, I've got a fingertip pulse oximeter, I'll be drinking plenty of fluids... so, if I'm lucky, I'm just going to be miserable for a few days. Fortunately, I've got the whole internet to help distract me. Anyone care to recommend some decent hopepunk stories to help pass the time?
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